美联储升息对外汇市场的影响

汇商资讯 8年前 (2015) admin
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美联储此次动作将会完全以交易者对期货利率走势和收入数据进行的调整。
美联储已经发布了一些决议,包括一些的短期的波动,市场的紧张局势已经的到了缓解。与周三早些时候亚洲开放时间相比美元交易或多或少是平稳的,并且随着股市的上涨,减少了不确定性。
纵观当前的货币市场,美联储公开市场委员会(FOMC)公布的此举是对短期波动的一种应对,不会在任何方式影响经纪人。美联储主席耶伦在发布会上传达了该消息。
看来,进入2016年货币市场的唯一方法就是数据整合和对未来数据的预期。
美元在2015年有望结束这种轻微的消极状态,但是我们可以期待美元市场接下来的大部分的好消息都是有价值的。
对汇率波动前景的评论,万达的市场分析师Craig Erlam评论说:“美元将会加强对升息的回应,交易者今天将会拉起红色警报观察欧洲市场。”
“虽然我们经常可以在这些公告后的市场将会引发许多大动作,我们的交易员也告诉我们风险管理,纪律和合理的现金流比重大胜利更重要。”他解释说。
在此方面,FOMC已经在声明中重申,加息的速度可能是循序渐进的:“委员会预计,经济状况的进化方式,将会在联邦基金利率中缓慢调整,联邦基金利率可能依然存在。在一段时间内,长远看来将低于预计。”
简而言之,对于市场的消化来说,没有新的市场信息。然而在交易者的眼中看来,美元已经得到了压倒性的看好,升息的决定在2015年剩下的日子里可能不会有什么大动作了。
 

Fed Rate Hike Discounted as a Non-Event for the Forex Market
The move by the Federal Reserve has been fully priced in with traders focusing on the future rates path and incoming data

The U.S. Federal Reserve has come out with its decision, and aside from some usual Fed decision short term volatility, the market has resoundingly yawned. The U.S. dollar is trading more or less flat when compared to Asian opening hours earlier on Wednesday, with the stock market rallying amid reduced uncertainty.
Looking at the currency market, the move by the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) has been met with short term gyrations that haven’t affected brokers in any material way. Fed Chair Janet Yellen has delivered a fairly consistent message throughout her press conference.
It appears that the only way forward for the currency markets going into 2016 is that of broad consolidation and anticipation of future data.
The U.S. dollar is on track to end 2015 on a slightly positive note, but one can expect that most of the good news for the Greenback has been priced in.
Commenting on the prospect for big currency swings, OANDA’s Market Analyst Craig Erlam said: “With the dollar likely to strengthen in response to the hike, traders will be on red alert come the European open on Thursday.”
“While we can often see some big moves in the markets following these announcements which will appeal to many, our traders also told us that risk management, discipline and being sensible about cash flow were more important than the big win,” he explained.
On its part, the FOMC has reiterated in its statement, that the pace of rate increases is likely to be gradual: “The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run.”
In short, there hasn’t been much new information for the markets to digest. While going into the decision traders were already overwhelmingly bullish on the U.S. dollar, the rate decision is not likely to lead to any major moves in the few remaining days of 2015.

 
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版权声明:admin 发表于 2015年12月17日 下午 11:12。
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