通货膨胀——美联储最薄弱的环节

汇商资讯 6年前 (2015) admin
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个人核心消费指出价格是一个非常关键的数据,美联储将在10月&12月会议中对该数据进行分析。
在9月17日的会议上,美联储保持联邦基金利率不变——自从2006年第一次发布的美联储利率后,这是备受期待并且值得注意的。在发布会之前,市场价格升空的概率为30%。
附带声明是与美联储低通膨胀相比比较次要的原因;“基于市场的通货膨胀,补偿措施的动作迟缓”和“最近全球经济和金融发展可能对经济活动造成了阻碍,会进一步在短期内给与通货膨胀的下行压力。”7月核心PCE的最小价差下降到1.2%——2011年至今的最低点——美联储可能需要在通货膨胀走高之前有足够的信心将其提升回到2%。
新闻发布会上也提到了在这会议上最近的金融市场动荡和中国放缓原因是应对加息。经济预测显示,2016年预期利率低于此前预期。耶伦不排除在10月份的会议上加息,然而市场定价12月发布概率较高;联邦基金利率期货——芝加哥商品交易所集团(CME Group)看到10月的11%有机会在12月上升到39% 。
最后,在之后的新闻发布会上,董事会决定美元全线抛售。然而,美元跌幅被限制,该货币在发布抛售之后的24小时强势恢复。9月18日星期五收盘,主要的货币对回到市场最初水平,但是市场也会很快升息。美元货币对很有可能会变成横向交易,我们会一直关注新闻的更新。
美国的就业形势一直很好,这为美联储加息提供一个强有力的论点。今年除了3月和8月,其余的月份美国每月都增加超过20万个工作岗位。最近新发布的新闻,虽然整体变化较小,但是失业率的最小值仍然下降到5.1%——是GFC有史以来最低水平,平均每小时加薪率达到了0.3%。
关于通货膨胀,核心CPI截止到8月31日上升了1.8%,比预估的1.9%要低。相对而言,CPI包括食品和能源的同期涨幅仅为0.2%,这极大的影响了石油的价格。达到了他们预期的2%的通货膨胀,美联储需要足够的信心相信核心通货膨胀是提高利率之前的一个趋势。核心个人消费指出物价指数截至7月31日价格增长率从1.2%降到1.3%。这标志着此次通货膨胀是2011年3月以来的最低水平,因此必须要抑制升空。8月份PEC会在9月28日发布;今年降到1.1%大大降低了今年升息的机会,然而公众对于美联储的关注是不变的。核心PCE是影响美联储在10月和12月会议中决定关键数据。
美国仍然有望成为第一个主要货币升息的国家。因此,美元在中期仍然是一个呈上涨趋势的货币。然而,我们可以看到美元一段时间的整合,这将会持续到我们对通货膨胀数据的下一个统计之前。我们将密切监视CPI和PCE数据来判断美联储是否会升息。
Inflation – The Fed’s Weakest Link
The Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price is a key figure that will dictate the Fed’s decision at the October & December meetings.
The Fed kept the Federal Funds Rate on hold at the September 17 meeting – this was a highly anticipated and noteworthy release given it was the first real possibility of a Fed rate hike since 2006. Ahead of the release, the market was pricing a 30% probability of liftoff.
The accompanying statement was relatively dovish with the Fed citing low inflation as the main cause of delaying liftoff; “Market-based measures of inflation compensation moved lower,” and “Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term.” With Core PCE having ticked down to 1.2% for July – the lowest level since 2011 – the Fed will likely need to see a move higher in inflation before being confident that it is moving back towards the 2% target.
 The press conference also mentioned the recent financial market volatility and the slowdown in China as reasons against raising rates at that meeting. The economic projections showed expectations of lower rates than previously expected for 2016. Yellen did not rule out a rate increase at the October meeting, however the market is pricing a December liftoff with higher probability; CME Group Fed Fund futures see an 11% chance of October liftoff versus 39% of December.
 Subsequently, the USD sold off across the board after the rate decision and during the ensuing press conference. However, USD losses were capped and the currency began to regain strength 24 hours post decision. By the close of trade on Friday, September 18, major pairs were back at pre-announced levels as the market still anticipates a rate hike soon. It is likely there will be sideways trading in USD pairs until we get some fresh news.
 The employment situation in the US has been excellent and has provided the Fed with a strong argument to raise rates. Over 200,000 jobs have been added every month this year aside from March and August. The most recent release, although slightly missing on the headline change, saw the unemployment rate tick down to 5.1% – the lowest levels since pre-GFC – and average hourly earnings increase to 0.3%.
Regarding inflation, Core CPI rose 1.8% during the 12 months ending August 31, below estimates of 1.9%. Comparatively, CPI including Food and Energy has risen only 0.2% for the same period – showing the massive impact of oil prices. To reach their objective of 2% inflation the Fed needs to be confident that Core inflation is trending towards that level before raising rates. Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index for the 12 months ending July 31 saw price increases drop to 1.2% from 1.3%. This marks the lowest level in PCE inflation since March 2011, and hence restrains liftoff. PCE for August is due out on September 28; a move down to 1.1% will greatly diminish chances of a rate hike this year, while an unchanged reading will also likely keep the Fed on hold. Core PCE is key data that will influence the Fed’s decision at the upcoming October and December meetings.
 The US is still on track to be the first country out of the major currencies to increase interest rates. Therefore, the US dollar remains a bullish currency in the medium-term. However, we may see a period of consolidation in the USD until we get our next set of inflation data. We will be monitoring CPI and PCE data closely to decide when the Fed are likely to raise rates.

 
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