Watching the Fed’s words观察美联储的措辞by Simon Smith, Chief EconomistApril 8, 2015 @ 6:56 UTC
Daily Forex Outlook
This evening sees the release of minutes to the 17-18 March FOMC meeting, where once again the Fed took with one hand (removing the word ‘patient’ from the statement) but gave in other ways (adjusting other wording, revising down future rate projections). The high point of the dollar index for the year was seen three days before the meeting, with the result securing the dollar turn-around. Given the change in wording, then the minutes could well offer further clues as to the Fed’s thinking. For now, the dollar still looks like it is consolidating, but a more dovish set of minutes, coming on the back of the weaker employment report last week, could well place further downward pressure on the Greenback.
今天晚上有三月十七和十八日举行的联邦公开市场委员会会议的会议纪要，会议上美联储再次出击（从声明中去掉了 “有耐心” 这一措辞），但也用其他方式表示了妥协（调整了其他措辞，调低了对未来利率调整的预期）。今年美元指数的高点在会议三天之前出现，结果就是美元的拐点巩固了下来。由于措辞的转变，我们可以从声明里面找出更多美联储的想法。目前，美元看起来仍然在巩固过程中，但是，自从上周那个不太好的就业报告发布后，一个措辞温和的会议纪要可能会给美元带来更多下行压力。
Overnight, we’ve seen the yen recover a touch after the latest BoJ meeting, where policy was kept on hold. There were some residual hopes for further stimulus measures, but it’s looking more likely when the BoJ produces its next round of forecasts, either at the end of this month or in July. USDJPY is back below the 120.00 level as a result, but this move could prove fleeting should expectations build for later this month. Elsewhere, Greece will issues 6-month t-bills today which will put it in focus once again, together with the visit by Greek PM Tsipras to Russia.
昨天，日本银行举行会议，在政策方面保持了稳定，此后日元有所恢复。还是有人希望能够出台更多刺激措施，不过看起来要到下一次日本银行作出预测时才会有措施出台，或者是这个月末，或者是在七月份，而美元日元也因此回到了 120.00 这个水平之下；不过，如果这个月后半段预期上升的话，美元日元的变动也许被证明只是暂时的。此外，今天希腊将发布半年期国债，希腊再次成为大众关注的焦点；而希腊总理 Tsipras 也将访问俄罗斯。
